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2018/19 NBA Predictions Analysis

Best Predictions

Let’s start out on a positive note. The best prediction, and the only one which was spot on, was Troy’s 53 win prediction for the Houston Rockets. After picking Milwaukee correctly last season, Troy gets the bullseye two years in a row.
Weirdly, at the start of the season, Houston was looking like one of the front runners for the furthest from the pin, sitting 14th in the west.
Other teams we were close with (in order) were Dallas, Detroit, Charlotte, Miami, Atlanta, Chicago, Indiana, Philly, Toronto, LA Lakers and San Antonio, all coming within 6 games of their prediction.

Teams That Surprised

The most surprisingly good team (and the worst prediction) was my 26 win prediction for the Orlando Magic.
They ended up winning 16 more games than predicted, finishing with 42 wins and earning themselves the 7 seed.
Other surprising teams (in order) were LA Clippers, Sacramento, Milwaukee and Brooklyn, who upped their predicted wins by 10 or more.

Teams That Disappointed

The most surprisingly bad team was the Cleveland Cavaliers. Predicted by Troy to get 34 wins, they went 15 worse than that and ended up with 19.
Others to not live up to expectations by 10 or more games were (in order) Boston, Golden State, Washington, Phoenix, New Orleans, New York and Memphis.

Overall 

Compared to the previous season, we fell off a bit, going from a 7.28 average game difference to 8.12. We were pretty optimistic, with teams doing 1.96 games worse than what we thought.
On average, I was the best tipper, being 7.6 games off the mark, Orlando and Washington screwing me over.
Troy was next with an 8 game difference, although he did preview 3 times as many teams so that’s probably a little skewed.
Jarrod was 9 away, being too loyal to the Celtics.

Full Results

TeamReviewerPredicted WinsActual WinsDifference
DenverAsh  NA
UtahAshNA
MinnesotaAsh  NA
OKCAsh  NA
PortlandAsh  NA
HoustonTroy5353 0
DallasTroy3533-2
DetroitTroy4341-2
CharlotteJesse36393
MiamiJesse4239-3
AtlantaJesse25294
ChicagoTroy2622-4
IndianaTroy5248-4
PhiladelphiaJarrod5651-5
TorontoJarrod53585
LA LakersTroy4337-6
San AntonioTroy42486
BrooklynJarrod324210
MilwaukeeTroy506010
SacramentoTroy293910
MemphisTroy4433-11
New YorkJarrod2817-11
New OrleansTroy4533-12
PhoenixTroy3119-12
WashingtonJesse4432-12
Golden StateTroy7057-13
LA ClippersTroy354813
BostonJarrod6349-14
ClevelandTroy3419-15
OrlandoJesse264216

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